Global Climate News: July 16-18
UNEP's new global foresights report, China's plan for coal power emissions, Canada's landfill methane regulation, Hydrogen-powered commercial ferries, synthetic butter
In this newsletter
Identifying Global Systemic Risks
News from Governments
Top stories
Identifying Global Systemic Risks
It’s a good day to think about systemic risks. UNEP’s Global Foresight Report identifies possible risks across the globe that may manifest over different timespans - 2-3 years, 4-6 years, 7+ years. Several climate issues - rising fossil fuel subsidies, integrity of carbon offsets, thawing of Arctic permafrost that may expose ancient microbes, large-scale human displacement due to areas becoming inhabitable - have been highlighted. While I’d rather discuss solutions than problems, this report is an excellent overview of how human activity is affecting the environment, and vice versa, and finding important areas to work on.
Here’s a graphic showing the likelihood and impact of different risk factors, and how soon they may affect humanity.
Key insights from the report:
Out of the 169 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets, 85% are off track, especially the environment-focused goals. 35 have made no progress, or gotten worse, since 2015
The Arctics have experienced more warming than any other region on Earth. This is not only contributing to rising sea levels, but may also cause release of vast amounts of methane and of microbes - bacteria, viruses, fungi - that have remained frozen in the ice for thousands of years. The latter is not just an anticipated risk - an anthrax outbreak killed thousands of reindeer and affected dozens of people in western Siberia, when spores of the bacteria Bacillus anthracis present in the permafrost, thawed and were exposed to open environment, allowing them to reproduce and spread. We also do not know enough about the kinds of microbes present in the permafrost, to prepare for any such risks.
Researchers have estimated that up to four sextillion (4,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) microorganisms could be released from thawing cryosphere each year as result of climate change
More biological risks on the rise - antimicrobial resistance and spread of zoonotic diseases
Risks to rare earth mineral supply chain - mining conflicts, trade restrictions, geopolitical tensions
More space missions are increasing demand for minerals, and contributing to GHG emissions. Moreover, these emissions are in the upper parts of the atmosphere and have greater global warming potential compared to those from other human actions on Earth.
Rocket launches and re-entry emit combustion emissions including carbon dioxide, water vapour and nitrogen oxides—black carbon (BC) from carbon-based solid and hypergolic fuels and kerosene, and alumina particles (Al2O3) and gaseous chlorine from solid fuels; a number of these combustion emissions are ozone depleting
Further, space debris is increasing, which can add substances like alumina to the upper atmosphere on re-entry
Solar geoengineering (also called solar radiation modification) - techniques like marine cloud brightening to reflect sunlight back into space - can lead to delays in closing the ozone gap, and cause warming of polar regions and cooling of tropics
Costs of agriculture and real estate insurance are rising.
Subsidies for fossil fuels rose by ~30% from 2022 to 2023
Fossil-fuel subsidies hit a record US$7 trillion in 2023, up by US$2 trillion in just two years, as governments responded to the global spike in energy prices.
Some quotes:
Water
Water scarcity has reached crisis levels globally, and projections indicate that by 2025 two-thirds of the global population will experience water stress with 1.8 billion people experiencing complete water scarcity
Land
Less than 25 per cent of the land area remains free from significant human impact, and this area is projected to shrink to less than 10 per cent by 2050
Biodiversity
The biomass of wild mammals has fallen by 82 per cent since prehistory with projections that by 2050 humans will have eliminated 38–46 per cent of all biodiversity measured as mean species abundance. Without swift and substantial intervention, nearly a million of the Earth’s estimated eight million species may be driven to extinction
Rising temperatures
Despite the Paris climate pledges, the current trajectory puts the world on track for a catastrophic temperature increase beyond between 2.1°C and 3.9°C by 2100…At this rate, by 2050, nearly one-quarter of the global population of adults aged 69 years and older, will be exposed to chronic and acute dangerous heat extremes, putting up to an additional 246 million older people at risk—largely in Africa and Asia
Emissions
Approximately two-thirds of current greenhouse gas emissions stem from the combustion of fossil fuels and industrial processes. Methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases are also increasing and contribute about a quarter of emissions. Collectively, the G20 nations are currently responsible for approximately 76 per cent of global emissions—with the largest historical cumulative emissions coming from China, the United States of America and the European Union, while least developed countries contributed 4 per cent
Impact of climate disasters
Between 1970 and 2021, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), storms, heat and flooding caused US$4.3 trillion in economic losses and killed more than two million people…. In just one-year, successive disasters have cost Brazil over US$20.4 billion from public funds
News from Governments
China has published a new government plan to reduce emissions in the coal power industry. Key initiatives include using coal mixed with green ammonia and/or biomass for power generation, and using carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technology. Reuters
The European Union has reformed its electricity market design rules. Future clean energy investments will mainly be financed through Contracts-for-Difference (CfDs). Under a CfD, developers invest on projects based on a pre-defined electricity price. If market prices fall below the agreed-on price, the government pays the difference to the developer, and vice versa. Euractiv | EU legislation amendments
Brazil is considering an investment vehicle that will extend credit lines to financial institutions for investing in green projects.
The government had previously stated that the line would have a 12-year term, with a grace period for principal and interest repayment of up to seven years Reuters
Lithium sourced from Chile, for use in batteries, will be eligible for tax benefits under the US Inflation Reduction Act.
The IRA requires a certain percentage of the critical metals in the battery come from the U.S. or a country with which it has a free trade agreement.
As Chile has a free trade agreement with the U.S., the two countries "made it explicit" that Chile was eligible for the tax breaks, the economy ministry said. Reuters
Canada has published draft regulation that would set minimum requirements for monitoring and reporting landfill methane emissions, and for capturing methane.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) estimates the regulation would avoid 107 metric megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2025 and 2040, with an average cost of $5 Canadian per metric ton.
Top Stories
Remember the reaction used to make synthetic fuels like methane from hydrogen and captured CO2? US-based Savor is using a similar process, with more steps, to make synthetic fats, like butter, for use in the food industry. The Guardian | Bill Gates’ blog post about Savor
The world’s first hydrogen-powered commercial passenger ferry will run on San Francisco Bay starting Friday, July 19. The 70-foot long MV Sea Change can carry 75 passengers, and uses “an integrated hydrogen power system from Zero Emission Industries (ZEI) with 360kW of PEM fuel cells,100kWh of Li-Ion battery storage, and 600kW of electric motor propulsion, providing a top speed of 15 knots and service speed of 8-12 knots.”
Picture of the MV Sea Change, Src: SWITCH Maritime Clean Energy Wire on the phaseout of coal-based power in Germany - for the Rhineland area the phaseout has been agreed for 2030, for the rest of the country the 2038 deadline may not be accelerated.
For installing offshore power systems - wind, wave, tidal - a mooring system is used that helps anchor the system to the seabed. These can be of several types - a frame of hydrofoils, one or more poles, a heavy structure that stays in place due to gravity, or a cable connecting to a smaller anchor on the seabed.
Different kinds of mooring systems for offshore power generation, Src: European Marine Energy Centre Here’s an interesting animation showing how an offshore wind turbine is installed in place using a flexible mooring system.
To manage energy needs and reduce emissions, Amazon is deploying energy efficiency upgrades - LED retrofits, rooftop heating, free-air cooling systems, more efficient chips - and using electric vehicles, onsite solar, and nuclear energy to power its data centres. Facilities Dive
Blackrock has published new Climate and Decarbonization Stewardship Guidelines (PDF). More on Utility Dive.
RMI blog on embodied carbon accounting - emissions embedded in cement building materials.
This was the 70th issue of Global Climate News. You can find all previous posts of this newsletter here.
I’m on leave from writing for a week, see you on the 26th!
I’m the maker of SummaryWithAI.com. You can find me on Twitter and LinkedIn. I also blog sometimes on Floating Coordinates.
