Global Climate News: June 5-6
Global Warming Update from WMO; Carbon Dioxide Removal; Australia's first green bond issue; Norway carbon storage licenses; Zero emission vehicles in Canada
In this newsletter
Global Warming Update from the World Meteorological Organisation
The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal
Top Stories
Global Warming Update from WMO
The World Meteorological Organisation has warned that global annual average temperatures will breach the 1.5℃ (above pre-industrial levels) threshold between 2024-2028.
According to the latest report, there is an 80 percent likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline. It says that it is likely (86%) that at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, beating 2023 which is currently the warmest year.
The Arctics will be worst affected, warming 3 times as much as the global average. There’s also a 47% chance that the entire 2024-28 period will be above the 1.5℃ limit.
UN Press Release | WMO Update, June 5 2024 | Full Report (PDF)
State of Carbon Dioxide Removal
The IPCC defines Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) as
Anthropogenic activities removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and durably storing it in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. It includes existing and potential anthropogenic enhancement of biological or geochemical CO2 sinks and direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage (DACCS) but excludes natural CO2 uptake not directly caused by human activities. IPCC
Thus, 3 criteria are important - carbon captured from the atmosphere and not directly from burning fossil fuels, long-duration storage of CO2, and human intervention to remove the CO2.
The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal reports on CDR methods and their adoption around the globe. Key insights from the 2024 report:
All current methods for CDR have sustainability risks associated with them
There are many CDR methods, which cover a variety of ways to capture and store CO2. These methods have different levels of readiness, potential and durability. Each method has sustainability risks that could limit its long-term deployment. When deployed alongside measures to explicitly address sustainability risks, some methods can provide benefits beyond climate change mitigation.
Current level of CDR is at 2Gt (gigatons) CO2 removed per year, mostly using conventional methods - such as aforestation, wetland restoration and soil carbon sequestration
Novel methods such as direct air capture, bioenergy, biochar, enhanced rock weathering total up to ~0.0013 GtCO2 removal per year
Patents in CDR have reduced since 2010, but there is more research on new methods
Biochar, soil carbon sequestration and afforestation/reforestation continue to dominate research publications on CDR. Over the last decade, publication output has expanded most rapidly for CDR methods such as Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS), coastal wetland restoration, enhanced rock weathering and biochar.
Canada and US lead in funding CDR research. Followed by Norway, Switzerland and UK.
Seven jurisdictions - Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, Norway, the UK and the US - have funding programmes to support CDR demonstration projects
Direct Air Capture is seeing more interest from investors
DACCS has become a primary focus for corporate and other large investors in CDR. Major CDR startups such as Climeworks and Carbon Engineering have received investments from corporations that are looking to offset emissions from their core business (e.g. Microsoft, Airbus, Chevron, J.P. Morgan). Other startups receiving high interest from corporations include those focusing on e-fuels or carbon utilization (e.g. Carbon Engineering, Prometheus, Global Thermostat) or advertising co-benefits such as water security (e.g. Avnos).
Carbon credits traded on Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCM) mostly relate to projects other than CDR, largely due to the high price of CDR
In 2023, CDR credits accounted for less than 10% of total credits sold on the VCM.
…The price per carbon credit is substantially higher for CDR than for other credit types. On average, credits from conventional CDR methods (which ranged from $12 to $16 in 2023) cost three times more than credits generated from emission reduction or avoidance projects
Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification is a key challenge, with a number of different protocols for these
We identified 102 MRV protocols for CDR. Sixty-three percent of these are for conventional CDR, 65% are for voluntary markets, and 58% are for international activity. Forty percent were developed since 2022.
Here’s a graphic showing the average price per carbon credit for different CDR methods
ET Energy | The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal (2024) (recommended)
Top Stories
Norway’s Ministry of Energy has announced 3 areas in the North Sea “for companies to apply for exploration licences related to CO2-storage on the Norwegian continental shelf.” Offshore Energy | Govt Press Release
Australia has raised AUD 7 billion ($4.8 billion) through its inaugural green bond issue. The funds will be used for green hydrogen hubs, community batteries and clean transport projects, and biodiversity conservation programs. ET Energy | Govt Press Release
Australia is running a bidding process to procure 1GW of long-duration energy storage. Mercom | Tender details
New report on Projecting Critical Minerals Need for India’s Energy Transition
In the base case for electricity generation (and all other parameters), the demand for minerals used in solar PV panels increases by 3.3 times between 2024 and 2047. When following the net zero pathway, the demand for these solar PV minerals increases by 4.9 times.
Zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) now make up 10% of new vehicle sales in Canada. In 2023, 80% of ZEV sales were of large vehicles, such as including pickup trucks, SUVs/crossovers or multi-purpose vehicles and vans. Canada Energy Regulator
India added 1.8GW of open access capacity in the first 3 months of 2024. Under open access, consumers directly procure renewable energy from developers rather than through utilities. Mercom
Researchers at MIT compared different options - electric, hydrogen fuel cells - for reducing emissions from long haul trucking. They found that electric trucks are unable to meet the current range needed for long haul trucking, and also have associated emissions since power is drawn from the grid and not directly from renewable power plants. Hydrogen vehicles are promising, but transportation and refuelling makes them a very expensive option compared to diesel-based trucks. The researchers propose an alternative where hydrogen is transported through liquid hydrogen organic carriers (LHOCs), such as methanol, and these LHOCs are used to fuel the trucks. The hydrogen-generating reaction is then carried out on-board the truck, bypassing the need for compressing and storing hydrogen. This significantly reduces the cost for hydrogen-based vehicles, and if green hydrogen is used emissions could be much lower too.
In their proposed plan, hydrogen-loaded LOHC is created at a chemical “hydrogenation” plant and then delivered to a retail refueling station, where it’s pumped into a long-haul truck. Onboard the truck, the loaded LOHC pours into the fuel-storage tank. From there it moves to the “dehydrogenation unit” — the reactor where heat and a catalyst together promote chemical reactions that separate the hydrogen from the LOHC. The hydrogen is sent to the powertrain, where it burns, producing energy that propels the truck forward.
The US has published a National Definition of a Zero Emissions Building
By the definition, at a minimum, a zero emissions building must be energy efficient, free of onsite emissions from energy use, and powered solely from clean energy. Future parts of this definition may address emissions from embodied carbon (producing, transporting, installing, and disposing of building materials) and additional considerations. DoE
Facilities Dive | National Definition of a Zero Emissions Building (PDF)
Good read on China’s carbon market by Dialogue Earth
While most other carbon markets aim to reduce total carbon emissions, China’s aims to reduce carbon intensity. The country’s regional carbon-trading pilots were created during a phase of rapid growth in economic and energy consumption. At that point, setting emissions allowances based on absolute emissions would have been very challenging for the pilot governments, so allowances were instead pegged to carbon intensity.
RMI on Battery Recycling
New research on using activated biochar and water for producing hydrogen Mercom | Research Paper
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